By Jon Berry

Passing through Grand Central Station on the way to work over the holidays, I stopped by the Transit Museum to check out its holiday-tradition model-train display. It was great, as always, a Manhattan fantasia of trains coursing under and around the Chrysler Building and other landmarks. But what really caught my eye was the unassuming little tray of buttons I saw when I turned around to leave, each bearing the simple message “optimism.” I immediately, without thinking, bought $20 worth (18 buttons, with tax) and popped one into my coat lapel. I’ve been passing them out ever since.

I’m not normally a rose-colored glasses type; “contrarian” would probably be a more apt accoutrement. But optimism is an idea I can buy into this year.

Yes, the jobs outlook is lousy as far as the eye can see.

Yes, Americans’ household net worth is still off 20%, since the housing/stock crash, an “epic” $12 trillion loss, as economist David Rosenberg recently wrote in Business Week.

Yes, as we found out over Christmas, we’re still living in a 9/11 world.

But trendwatchers who just preach pragmatism and prudence for 2010 are missing some big stories. A more complex – and optimistic – picture is emerging in our U.S. research.

Consumers’ mood is brightening. We see this most clearly in our long-running “good time to buy” gauge of consumer confidence. 26% of Americans 18 and older now feel it’s a good time to buy, according to our fall 2009 online survey, up 8 points from fall 2008.

For sure, we shouldn’t get carried away. A mid-20s “good time to buy” is nothing to write home about. Still, a shift has begun. Marketers will be pleased to find some folks they like to hang out with among those with the largest swings towards confidence – the leading-indicator INFLUENTIAL Americans®, the affluent, and – perhaps most important – moms with kids under 18 and working moms with kids under 18. If, as the old line says, “When mama’s not happy, nobody’s happy,” it bodes well for us all that moms are in the vanguard of feeling better.

Then there’s the marketplace. True to the prediction we made in our “Lessons from Past Recessions” client teleconference last February, creativity and innovation have not taken a holiday – providing more reasons to be optimistic.

Here’s my starter list of reasons for optimism today:

1. Apple’s “i”-posse (iPhone, iPod, the apps, and, soon, it seems, a tablet)
2. Streaming video on Netflix and Hulu
3. The real-food movement – farmers markets, Michael Pollen, organics, and regional food entrepreneurs like Dos Toros burritos (check them out the next time you’re in NYC) and Kakawa chocolate (http://www.kakawachocolates.com)
4. The Economist’s 12/19/09 issue – especially “the idea of progress” and “the art of abandonment” essays.
5. The greening of the auto and home industries (here’s to “cash for caulkers” in 2010)
6. Online learning (watch for it to be a seedbed for reinvention and entrepreneurism as the recovery moves forward)
7. Movies like Up, Up in the Air, and Avatar (storytelling lives!)
8. The 2010 World Cup
9. Charles Dickens novels (not new, but was he ever more timely?)
10. The “optimism” buttons (beyond the serendipity, they have a great story, see below).

What’s your list?

(The “optimism” buttons are part of graphic designer Reed Seifer’s Project Optimism. They wound up in the Train Museum as a result of a public-art project this fall that stamped “optimism” on the back of millions of New York subway passes. So go buy “optimism” buttons for yourself, clients, colleagues, and friends, see http://www.projectoptimism.com/about.htm. Let’s start something.)

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Tags: Consumer Confidence, Consumer Trends, Economy, Gfk Roper Consulting, Jon Berry, Mothers, Optimism