Festive decorations on Orchard Road, Singapore

One of the things that struck me on my recent visit to Singapore was how much more lavish and festive were the Christmas decorations than back home in ‘austerity Britain’. That in itself is not surprising in today’s globalised world, where even in non-Christian parts of the world, consumers can engage in the commercial aspect of Christmas, no doubt to the delight of marketers. At the same time, as our latest Global Pulse client deliverable points out, there are signs that what has been an exclusively American phenomenon, Black Friday, is now spreading to other parts, including neighbouring Mexico and Canada. The UK has also seen some limited activity, with retailers such as Amazon and Selfridges offering Black Friday deals, and the Guardian newspaper offering its readers a handy primer on the day’s origins. We have also seen the spread of Cyber Monday around the world, when consumers get their online Christmas shopping underway in a big way.

What strikes me in all this is that whereas Cyber Monday can be seen in some ways to be a natural phenomenon (i.e. it’s the day that many people just happen to do their Christmas shopping online) Black Friday, though it may have started off that way (people have a day off, so they do some gift-buying), it is now a proactive promotion by retailers to get people in the shops. It seems to be only in the past few years that retailers in the UK have had lots of promotional events before Christmas – it was naturally a busy time, and the clearance promotions came afterwards. Is it perhaps a sign of growing desperation among retailers that they are forced to encourage people to shop at times when they used to do so anyway?

Our Global Pulse analysis shows how consumers in certain markets around the world are more amenable to such deal-driven events – in other words, the potential for Black Friday to go global. It’s interesting stuff. The challenge for retailers and marketers is to create new retail ‘events’ in the calendar, without straying in the territory of so-called Hallmark Holidays. My favourite example of this is White Day in Japan – a day invented by the confectionary industry in 1978 to encourage men to buy women chocolate in return for the gifts they received on Valentine’s Day one month previously (when women buy chocolate for men). Today, it’s something that everyone in Japan knows about and undoubtedly generates a lot of revenue. Indeed, I gave and received my share of ‘courtesy chocolate’ when I lived there…

An update of a classic self-help book gives David Crosbie pause for thought

“You know, there is a book called ‘How to Win Friends and Influence People’. Maybe you should read it?” This is what my mother used to say to me when I was being a particularly recalcitrant teenager. I was therefore doubly interested to read recently that the original book, written by Dale Carnegie and first published in 1936, has been updated for the digital age, covering social media and the internet.

I say doubly so because I see striking parallels between this tale and the work of another pioneer of the Twentieth Century, our very own Elmo Roper, whose Influentials® model, first developed in 1945, is just as relevant as ever before, and has been updated by GfK Roper Consulting for the 21^st Century.

While Carnegie’s book offered advice to those who wanted to make a better impression on those around them, Roper’s Influentials® model identifies those consumers in a society whom others are more likely to turn to for advice on which products and services to buy. In other words, the consumers marketers must target in an age where word-of-mouth recommendation is key.

As I say, the model has evolved over the years, and while Influencing used to take place primarily at home, in the workplace or in social situations, it is now increasingly likely to take place online, with over a quarter of global consumers having posted a recommendation, complaint or both online according to 2011 Roper Reports® Worldwide data.

Whilst technology undoubtedly allows all consumers to share their opinions further and wider than ever before, it’s important to recognise that there is still a distinction to be drawn between those who are more influential than others. I am sure I’m not alone in looking at a number of reviews of a particular hotel on Trip Advisor (for example) ranging from one to five stars, and wondering just whose opinion I can trust most. The answer, as it has been for over sixty years now, is to turn to the Influentials®. To find out who they are, contact us for more information.

A spate of data security scares fuels an on-going trend, says David Crosbie

My American colleague happened to mention to me the other day that she had received at least three emails in recent weeks from companies she’d shared personal data with admitting that the security of those data had been compromised in some way. One of the companies she mentioned had in fact contacted me as well, to inform me of the same problem.

Then came the news that the personal data of 77 million global users of Sony’s PlayStation Network (PSN) had been hacked into, which is only the latest in many news stories about information security, or lack of it, in today’s digital world.

Every year in our Roper Reports Worldwide study, we ask over 30,000 consumers globally which three issues they are most concerned about. In 2010, 8% – getting on for one in ten – of these consumers cited personal information getting into the wrong hands. This year’s results will be released in our Mood of the World 2011 report, coming soon.     

What this annual ‘concerns’ question reveals is that consumers around the world are plagued by a variety of worries, concerns and fears, which they of course try to mitigate through the products and services they buy. In fact, a sizeable proportion of global consumers agree they only buy products and services from a known or trusted brand. These findings help to inform our Safe and Secure trend, which is one of the 12 global consumer trends in our TrendKey framework.

Thanks first to 24 hour rolling news and then to online social networks, information (accurate or otherwise) spreads more quickly than ever before, and it can be envisaged that the spread of fear, coupled with the quest for reassurance, will continue and grow in coming years. In a world of increasing complexity and connectivity it is more challenging, yet at the same time more important, than ever that companies and brands provide credible reassurance and peace of mind at every touch point.

An uplift in pigeon fancying says a lot about Chinese consumer trends, says David Crosbie

I had to wonder if my ears were deceiving me one morning the other month, as I woke up to news on BBC Radio’s Today programme that pigeon fancying is gaining in popularity amongst wealthy Chinese, with prize birds being snapped up by Chinese buyers at auctions around the world for what seem to the layman like vast sums of money.

The reason for my surprise is that in the UK, pigeon fancying and racing is viewed as a primarily working class pursuit, once popular among the proletariat in Northern towns. History, however, combined with consumer insights from Roper Reports Worldwide, show that my initial disbelief was unwarranted.

First of all, pigeon breeding has a long history in China, dating back to the Ming dynasty (1368-1644), when they were used as carriers of messages, though the practice was later banned during the Cultural Revolution due to its capitalist overtones.

Secondly, and more insightfully for marketers looking to appeal to the emergent Chinese middle class, this example highlights the willingness of moneyed Chinese consumers to spend lavishly on symbols of wealth and success, preferably those which convey a sense of status and heritage. It is part of a wider phenomenon that includes Chinese interest in the international fine wine market, and their voracious appetite for luxury goods with prestigious brand names.

GfK Roper Consulting tracked and foresaw this development in Chinese consumers using our ValueScope tool, which monitors the Personal Values of consumers in 25 markets worldwide. The behaviour outlined above is entirely in character for those consumers with an Achiever mindset, which accounts for 40% of the Chinese population (vs. global average of 25%). For more details on how to target Achievers in China and elsewhere, as well as to learn what’s next for global consumers, contact us.

The search for peace and solitude gets ever trickier, says David Crosbie

I’ll admit it’s not often that I see links between my hometown and the latest global consumer trends, but I find one aspect of that sleepy corner of rural Scotland to be quite striking. The Galloway Forest Park in Dumfries & Galloway is recognized by the International Dark Sky Association as one of the best places for stargazing in the world. Due to its remoteness and lack of proximity to conurbations, it is one of the few places in the UK not to be affected in some way by light pollution, which renders many stars difficult to see or invisible.

To me, learning of the existence of such a place served to underline the fact that there are fewer and fewer places in the world that are completely untouched by human development, and consequently it becomes progressively more difficult for us to really ‘get away from it all’ – something we know from our Roper Reports Worldwide study is important to many of us. Many global consumers admit that they often feel stressed, and when asked what they do to give themselves a treat, they are most likely to say they simply take time for themselves.

Another much discussed symptom of modern life is information or sensory overload. The spread of portable electronic devices such as smartphones and tablet computers, coupled with the growth of social networking means that we have the ability to stay ‘connected’ like never before, and we are bombarded by ever increasing volumes of information in the form of text, images and data. Not surprisingly, many sources, including our own study, have identified a backlash against the overwhelming tide of information, with 34% of global consumers telling us that they have cut back on the amount of time they spend on social networking sites as it takes too much time and effort, for example.

We feel this is a symptom of a wider trend among consumers, most notably those in developed markets, who wish to feel they are in control of their busy lives and the information they receive, rather than the other way around. This necessitates rationalisation, curation and any number of coping strategies, including giving ourselves some time out and allowing our senses a chance to recover. These strategies could range from turning off the BlackBerry at a set time each night through to heading to the wilds of Scotland where not even the glow from the screen of an iPhone will break the gloom.

This trend, which we call Streamlining, is just one of the 12 global consumer trends in our brand new TrendKey framework, soon to be launched. For further information on this, click here.

The world’s fourth most populous country is definitely one to watch, says David Crosbie

Two media reports in the past week have served to underline the increasing importance of Indonesia and its consumers to the global economy.

Firstly, an article in Bloomberg Businessweek highlighted the fact that many economists are calling for Indonesia to either be added to the BRIC group – Brazil, Russia, India and China: the four nations identified by Goldman Sachs in 2001 as likely to be the world’s biggest economies by 2050 – or to replace Russia altogether.

The rationale behind these calls is that in contrast to Russia, whose GDP figures have been lacklustre of late and whose population is ageing rapidly, Indonesia has a booming economy (with year-on-year GDP growth of nearly 6%, according to Bloomberg) and a young and vibrant population.

Secondly, the UK’s Guardian newspaper reported, under the headline Why Indonesians are all a-Twitter, that according to a study by ComScore, the country has the highest proportion of Twitter users on the planet, with 20.8% of online Indonesians aged over fifteen posting messages on the microblogging site. Brazil comes second, with an equivalent figure of 20.5%. This suggests not only that Indonesian consumers are increasingly tech-savvy, but also that their ability to spread the word about new products and services is on the up.

Indonesia has been one of the ‘Core 25’ countries in GfK Roper Consulting’s Roper Reports Worldwide research since the study’s inception in 1997, because even before the country’s economic advances during the 2000s it represented a formidable group of consumers. Today, Indonesia has the fourth biggest population globally, and is the largest Muslim democracy in the world.

Our ongoing insights into the attitudes and behaviours of Indonesian consumers point to an increasingly promising environment for marketers. Long trend analysis shows that the confidence of Indonesian consumers overtook that of the global average in 2009, and now stands ten percentage points clear. What’s more, according to GfK Roper Consulting’s Consumer Recession Index, which combines a wide range of indicators to determine the extent to which consumers are affected by prevailing economic conditions, Indonesians were the third-least affected of 25 markets in 2010.

It’s clear that Indonesia will offer increased opportunities in the years to come, but these can only be acted upon with a clear insight into the attitudes and behaviours of its consumers. To find out more about how GfK Roper Consulting can help you to achieve this, please contact us. All that’s left now is to settle on a name for this new group. BIIC has been suggested. Or would anybody like a BICI?

Elmo Roper, creator of The Influentials

The Blink author’s latest pronouncements should be viewed in the context of broader consumer trends, argues David Crosbie

We at GfK Roper Consulting are particularly proud that it was our illustrious predecessors who created the concept of the Influentials – the one in ten citizens who tell the other nine how to vote, where to eat and what to buy.

The concept of Influentials was first coined by Elmo Roper in the 1940s, in a segmentation created for Standard Oil. Starting in the US in 1973, and then later globally, we have identified and profiled those well-informed and trusted individuals who are sought out for and disperse advice on a whole host of topics, and who are so valuable to marketers. As traditional forms of advertising are trusted less and less, and as technology develops, we have also monitored the steady growth of ‘word of mouse’, as it supplements traditional word of mouth.

It’s in this context that I was particularly interested to read Malcolm Gladwell’s controversial article on social networks in the New Yorker magazine last month, and to monitor the fierce debate it ignited on the Twittersphere and elsewhere. Of course Gladwell is something of an Influential himself, with books such as The Tipping Point and Blink selling millions of copies and influencing countless marketing strategies.  In his article, Gladwell warns that the motivational power of social networks is being over-estimated, explaining that a Facebook friend (or other virtual relationship) should not be equated to a real friendship, as some have tried to, because the ties are much weaker in nature. His argument related particularly to social activism, but it certainly caused me to reconsider the relative worth of ‘real’ and ‘virtual’ ties.

Our GfK Roper Reports Worldwide data show how virtual relationships are the fastest growing form of interaction globally, with 20% of consumers in our 2010 study saying they had been in touch with someone they only knew online in the past month. We also know that online sources are increasingly trusted as a source of information on which products or services to buy. As the growth in popularity of product review sites has shown, strong personal ties are not quite as necessary when it comes to deciding what to buy or where to eat, though the views of a friend will still count for more than those of a stranger.

As we see it, not only do the myriad social networking sites make it easier for traditional Influentials to carry out their business of spreading the word about products and services they like or dislike and responding to requests from acquaintances for advice, but they also encourage others who may have never previously considered doing so to review a hotel on TripAdvisor, say, or to consider the opinions of fellow consumers via a product review site.

As Gladwell argues, Twitter and Facebook may not be as suited to organising revolutions as more conventional forms of social activism, but in the world of retail they undoubtedly strengthen the hand of the global consumer, and as such their power should not be dismissed lightly by marketers in any sector.

Politicians, multinationals, consumers – David Crosbie considers who should be taking responsibility for protecting the environment

A couple of stories in the news lately have reminded me of a question that we have previously asked consumers in our GfK Roper Reports Worldwide study – namely, who ought to be shouldering the responsibility for environmental issues.

First of all, the oil leakage in the Gulf of Mexico and the ongoing efforts to stem it are a stark reminder of the responsibilities faced by multinational corporations, particularly those dealing with chemicals or pollutants. When something goes wrong, the consequences can be dire, and citizens expect the company involved, in conjunction with government, to stop at nothing to put the damage right.    

Secondly, one of the most interesting stories from the UK’s recent general election – apart of course from the first hung parliament since 1974 and the first coalition government since World War II – was the election of the UK parliament’s first ever Green Party member in the form of Caroline Lucas. This, coupled with the fact that other parties published separate green manifestos, shows that the issue is increasingly important in voters’ decision making process.

 As I said, GfK Roper Reports Worldwide tackled the question of responsibility for the environment a couple of years ago by asking consumers around the world to name the one group they felt should take the lead on the issue of global climate change. Globally, 30% replied that this role should fall to national governments, more than double the next most common response (environmental groups) and way ahead of those who cited business and industry or individual citizens.

 Given the immense nature of the problem, one might have expected even more consumers to delegate the problem upwards and let government sort it out. However, at the same time a large proportion of consumers do tell us that they feel they ought to be doing something about the issue of the environment themselves, even if it’s something relatively small. It seems that global consumers are aware that dealing with the issue of the environment is not something that they can do solely by themselves, but they are willing to do their bit if they know that other stakeholders in business and government are doing their fair share as well.

 One thing’s for certain, it’s a topic that is becoming more and more important, and beyond political parties being judged on their green manifestos, companies are being judged on their policies too. This topic is one of many attitudinal and behavioural measures that feature in GfK Roper’s new Green Gauge Global product, which aims to advise companies on how they can best respond to the changing and complex attitudes of global consumers towards green. For more information, click here. 

As the dust settles on an unprecedented week of travel disruption, David Crosbie  considers the effect such events can have on how we plan ahead.

In GfK Roper Reports Worldwide, we ask 30,000 consumers around the world about the issues that concern them most. We ask about recession and unemployment. We ask about crime and lawlessness. We even ask about climate change and global warming. We do not ask about disruption caused by volcanic ash, but that has been at the foremost of millions of people’s minds around the world since last Thursday.

I myself was somewhat preoccupied by it as I scratched my head and wondered how to get back to London after a meeting in Frankfurt that was meant to be a day trip. Having unwittingly flown out on one of the last planes leaving the UK, I was faced with the prospect of taking five trains over three days to make it back to the UK.

This gave me plenty of time to muse on the possible long-term implications of the incident. Particularly if the disruption recurs intermittently, could it make travellers more wary and less reliant on air travel, which has become increasingly cheap and accessible in recent years? Would flying be shunned as an expensive, unreliable and environmentally damaging pursuit? Commentators were quick to point out the effects of previous large-scale eruptions, such as the one that may have precipitated the French Revolution. In the event, most people will probably not easily give up the convenience that they have grown used to lightly. But the important point is that just a couple of weeks ago it would be unthinkable to most people that the skies above Europe could be free from air traffic for days on end.

To me, this incident serves to underline that future scenario planning involves acknowledging that in the next five to ten years things will happen that are completely beyond our wildest imagination. Instead we should take into consideration what kind of things might happen, and plan accordingly. Former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was widely pilloried for his explanation of this kind of thing, which warrants repetition in full:

“There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we do not know we don’t know.”

However, in the business of scenario planning this is exactly the approach to take. GfK Roper Consulting’s TrendKEY global framework of consumer trends provides a model, informed by global consumer insight data, which is designed to help inform a view of the next few years, particularly with regard to shedding light on the things we know we don’t know (or, to add another category to the list, drawing out those things we don’t know we know).

As my illustrious compatriot and national poet Robert Burns once put it in his poem ‘To A Mouse’, “…thou art no thy lane,/ In proving foresight may be vain/ The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men / Gang aft agley.” While my day trip to Frankfurt proved this sentiment is as valid now as when it was written over 200 years ago, there are many ways in which you can reduce the chances of your future plans going awry, and in a business context, a robust consumer trends product is certainly one of them! 

Reaction to awareness campaign underlines the controversial nature of this topic, says David Crosbie

Once upon a time – last October in fact – the UK government’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) created a TV and poster campaign that highlighted the dangers of climate change in language that all consumers could understand. The series featured well known nursery rhymes, whose original lyrics were altered to take account of the effects that climate change has had on the environment. So for example, when “Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a pail of water”, they found that, “[t]here was none, as extreme weather due to climate change had caused a drought.”

The campaign, however, was the subject of nearly 1,000 complaints to the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) from members of the public who varyingly claimed that it was misleading, scaremongering and frightening to children. In mid March, the ASA ruled that two of the print ads, ‘Jack and Jill’ and ‘Three Men in a Tub’, had breached its guidelines, noting that they “should have been phrased more tentatively.” In the wake of the judgement, some commentators have weighed in with further criticism of the campaign, going so far as to say that it set back public debate on the subject several years.

This incident serves to underline the contentious nature of the issue of climate change. The number of complaints received suggests that there is a body of UK consumers who, if not opposed to the idea of man-made climate change, are sceptical about it and alert to exaggerated or misleading claims made on the subject. The aim of the campaign seems to have been to cajole or even frighten consumers into action by reducing their carbon emissions, but what are the current levels of engagement (and cynicism) amongst Brits?    

Roper Reports Worldwide data from 2009 show that 59% of UK consumers agree that “we/I have to do something now to save the planet”, which falls somewhat short of the global average. On the other hand, 27% agree that, “global climate change/global warming is not as much of a threat as the media make it out to be”, again a lower proportion than globally. Rather than leading to increased agreement with the former statement, this latest campaign may have inadvertently led to increased agreement with the latter. The fallout has led some to ask what is the best approach to environmental communication.

While the answer to this query is by no means straightforward, what is not in doubt is the complexity of the debate on this topic. That is why GfK Roper Consulting is taking its consumer research on environmental attitudes one stage further in 2010 with Green Gauge Global, a new product that includes a worldwide green segmentation of consumers. You can now sign up to receive the latest news on this product as it is released, so that you can sleep safe in the knowledge that you won’t miss out…