Festive decorations on Orchard Road, Singapore

One of the things that struck me on my recent visit to Singapore was how much more lavish and festive were the Christmas decorations than back home in ‘austerity Britain’. That in itself is not surprising in today’s globalised world, where even in non-Christian parts of the world, consumers can engage in the commercial aspect of Christmas, no doubt to the delight of marketers. At the same time, as our latest Global Pulse client deliverable points out, there are signs that what has been an exclusively American phenomenon, Black Friday, is now spreading to other parts, including neighbouring Mexico and Canada. The UK has also seen some limited activity, with retailers such as Amazon and Selfridges offering Black Friday deals, and the Guardian newspaper offering its readers a handy primer on the day’s origins. We have also seen the spread of Cyber Monday around the world, when consumers get their online Christmas shopping underway in a big way.

What strikes me in all this is that whereas Cyber Monday can be seen in some ways to be a natural phenomenon (i.e. it’s the day that many people just happen to do their Christmas shopping online) Black Friday, though it may have started off that way (people have a day off, so they do some gift-buying), it is now a proactive promotion by retailers to get people in the shops. It seems to be only in the past few years that retailers in the UK have had lots of promotional events before Christmas – it was naturally a busy time, and the clearance promotions came afterwards. Is it perhaps a sign of growing desperation among retailers that they are forced to encourage people to shop at times when they used to do so anyway?

Our Global Pulse analysis shows how consumers in certain markets around the world are more amenable to such deal-driven events – in other words, the potential for Black Friday to go global. It’s interesting stuff. The challenge for retailers and marketers is to create new retail ‘events’ in the calendar, without straying in the territory of so-called Hallmark Holidays. My favourite example of this is White Day in Japan – a day invented by the confectionary industry in 1978 to encourage men to buy women chocolate in return for the gifts they received on Valentine’s Day one month previously (when women buy chocolate for men). Today, it’s something that everyone in Japan knows about and undoubtedly generates a lot of revenue. Indeed, I gave and received my share of ‘courtesy chocolate’ when I lived there…

Someone told me the other day that their company policy doesn’t allow them to check their personal email accounts such as Yahoo! or Hotmail on their computer at work. Looking at my network of friends and colleagues, who often not only own one but two smartphones, I really wonder what difference it would make to them.

In today’s connected world, we increasingly have the possibility to check our emails on smartphones – according to GfK Roper Reports® Worldwide, our annual global study across 25 countries, 31% of global households already own at least one multifunctional device that is e-mail capable such as Blackberry, i-Phone or HTC.  And most importantly, we can do much more with our phones than just emailing! In a typical day I use my phone to read my emails of course but also to search locations on Google map, browse for products, check my bank account, buy my cinema tickets and organise nights out with friends via Blackberry messenger, standard text messaging or even via the ‘WhatsApp’ application. I also check the news, I like to read tweets and give my opinion on Twitter, I check in on Foursquare and I am curious about what my friends have to say on Facebook and now Google +. The list seems endless!

Like many other consumers and in line with the ‘Instant Everywhere’ trend (the ‘Instant Everywhere’ trend is part of our GfK Roper Consulting TrendKey 3.1 product), I believe that being constantly connected is great, it allows me to be independent, to get things done within minutes and to stay in touch with friends and families at all times. My favourite pass-time at the moment is to scan Twitter for instant and tailored news and I certainly consider my Blackberry to be the one thing that I would never leave the house without.

However, as my friend has recently pointed out to me, this might also be exactly my problem. I’ve come to a point where watching TV, whilst playing ‘Angry Bird’ on my I-pad and tweeting on my Blackberry at the same time is just a routine thing for me to do. But I’m told, probably rightly so, that this is just a step too far. Reality is that technology has started to dictate how I live my life rather than me being in control; in less than two years, mobile technology has completely changed my everyday routine.

The way mobile technology has invaded my life is becoming increasingly obvious to me. I am often distracted; I feel that I am constantly bombarded with too much information which means I often will simply forget about the details. I find it hard to memorise things and to recall places and names (it is all saved in my Blackberry somewhere!). I get nervous if I don’t find a good network connection or if I don’t get replies instantly. I suffer from sleep deprivation because my mind hasn’t had a chance to switch off before going to bed. Generally I feel surrounded by clutter everywhere, but I am too scared to get rid of information because of fear of missing out! And it seems that I am not the only one. The fast development of mobile technology has an impact on how we perceive the world, our world. According to a 2011 Ofcom study, 37% of adults and 60% of teens are ‘highly addicted’ to their smartphones in the UK. And psychologists are increasingly discussing a new syndrome called FOMO – the fear of missing out, brought on by being aware of so many alternatives, by seeing other things that you could be doing, or having, or being. This fear of missing out is often fuelled by social networking sites such as Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn as they are platforms for social comparisons and make it more apparent to people what they aren’t doing or achieving.

There is no denying that there are exciting times ahead for technology fans and smartphone users. Some of the latest application such as ‘Plane Finder AR’ and augmented reality apps such as ‘Wikitude’ are simply breath-taking and give us a glimpse of how exciting the future of mobile technology will be. Some of the apps are also very functional and will make our lives much easier and less cluttered, such as the British Airways Check-In app, the Urbanspoon app or the electronic promotion vouchers on Foursquare. These apps have a very promising future as consumers increasingly and actively look to simplify their lives. Any products and services that help them focus on the essential will be increasingly important in a world of massive complexity and choice (this ‘Streamlined’ trend is part of our GfK Roper Consulting TrendKey 3.1 product).

But there is also increasing proof that mobile technology impacts our life much more than we intended to. Mobile technology has infiltrated our lives and has impacted the way we interact with the world around us. It has also brought us more fear of social exclusion as we are constantly looking with envy at others on social media platforms wishing we were them. We tend to multi-task and our work-life balance is increasingly blurred. This often stops us from enjoying what we do right now in the moment. For myself I have decided to consciously reduce my obsession with constant updates, emails, and instant messaging. Almost like fighting an addiction I find it tough but I know I will be worth it. And the evidence is there. Even little things such as freeing up my inbox from clutter have been very mood-lifting and liberalising. But there are other benefits too. By taking just a tiny bit of distance from my phone and tablet, I am finally in a position again to fully enjoy shared experiences of all kinds that I and my friends and family can always treasure. And this has brought me to the conclusion that there is nothing better than the joy of shared and uninterrupted experiences with our loved ones.

In nearly two months, the Occupy Movement protests have captured heaps of global media attention. The movement started in Kuala Lumpur in late summer, quickly followed by New York City (the Occupy Wall Street Movement) and San Francisco. By October, nine Occupy protests had taken place in over 95 cities across 82 countries. Here in London, the protests began in solidarity with the Occupy Wall Street protests in New York. The London Stock Exchange was the initial target but attempts to occupy the Paternoster square where thwarted by the police and the protesters ended up outside St. Paul Cathedral. On my way to work, I frequently walk past St. Paul and past the encampment; I often stop and observe what’s happening as I am fascinated by the activities on the site. The protests have sparked much discussion in our office, as I’m sure they have across the UK.

Many protesters have put up flyers, posters or flags and one of them has particularly caught my attention. The flag states: ‘Grow The Real Economy: Time, Experience, Wisdom, Knowledge, Learning…’. The text has sparked my interest as I wonder how much these values and aspirations actually resonate with the wider UK population.

What is fascinating is that despite the protesters only representing a minority at the moment, it can be argued that aspects of this slogan chime with wider consumer sentiment in the UK and globally. For instance, according to the latest GfK Roper Reports Worldwide data, almost a third of consumers in the UK prefer more time over money (27%). Not only that, our ValueScope model also identifies Wisdom to be a rapidly growing global value (values being defined as guiding principles in our life). Wisdom is a state of being that involves knowledge, understanding, experience, discretion, and intuitive understanding, along with a capacity to apply these qualities well. In this sense, it is the judicious application of knowledge. People who value Wisdom also value Knowledge and Learning, and they want others to have equal opportunities. And finally, the protesters also call for more experience. On this score, our Trendkey 3.1 product identifies Experience as a key trend for the UK and globally: consumers around the world increasingly identify with what they have done, seen and been to rather than their material possessions and the stuff that surrounds them. They are on the look-out for anything new and exciting and are increasingly seeking out shared experiences with friends and family.

The Occupy Movement certainly isn’t mainstream and its impact currently limited. But as this example shows some of its aspirations are already more widely held (if less vocal), and could be a harbinger of how consumer sentiment will evolve.

When I was a little girl and I was asked to picture myself in the future, I often imagined myself living as an adult in a spacious bright and modern house, the kids playing with the dogs in the big garden and my husband returning from work in a big fancy car. I envisaged this place to be my home, my haven of peace, joy and togetherness. Twenty years on, things haven’t exactly turned out that way. One of the reasons is that I am part of Generation Y, also described by my US colleagues as generation ‘Why Me’. Gen Y is a generation (born 19980-1994) that has come of age in world far different from the idealised future that we and our parents envisioned. Faced with a harsh jobless economy, adulthood things to-do like marriage, babies and house ownership suddenly seem out of reach and are consequently delayed.

There is no doubt that I have been chastened by the collapse of the housing market and recent price hikes in the London area. I have to face the harsh reality that the state of the UK economy has delayed my chance to jump on the property ladder for the unforeseeable future.

Generally, with increasing concerns about inflation, recession and unemployment, housing distress has been the harsh reality for many consumers around the world.  According to GfK Roper Reports® Worldwide, 12% of consumers in the UK have experienced housing distress – loss of home, difficulty paying rent or mortgage, difficulty buying or selling a home. This number even increases to 14% on a global scale. Some markets are affected more than others of course; more than 1 in 5 consumers have experienced housing distress in Argentina, Australia, India, Korea, Mexico and Poland whereas it is less of a problem in Japan for instance.

But why is it so important to own a place called home?

Home ownership is often a key aspiration for many of us and becomes more important the more affluent we become. Our home is the most expensive purchase that we’ll probably make in our lifetime and is therefore quite an emotional investment too. And as the world’s population grows and crowds together further through urbanisation, the desire for a private, secure haven of one’s own will grow more pronounced.  Indeed, in a world of growing uncertainty and instability, the idea of the home as a fortress and protective cocoon will develop and evolve.  And with the economy having forced consumers to stay in more instead of going out, having a place called ‘home’ is increasingly important.

One of the GfK Roper Consulting 12 trends, part of our GfK Roper Consulting TrendKey 3.1 product, looks specifically at this ‘House to Home’ aspiration. 4 out of 5 consumers in the UK agree that they enjoy spending a lot of free time at home and an equal amount of UK consumers agree that their home is a place where they can relax and get away from it all.  In addition to that, we also express a strong desire to entertain guests at home and have fun with friends and families in our own four walls.

But home is not only a haven of peace for many of us, it is also a reflection of our personal values – in the UK 63% of consumers say their home is a reflection of who they are and what they value.  When we look at the housing market in London for instance, it becomes quickly apparent that our personal values can be powerful decision-making elements when picking our next home. Take Camden Town for instance. Camden Town is situated  in Northwest London and well known for its alternative culture. It’s not as upmarket as other regions such as Hampstead or as close to the city as Soho for example but house prices in Camden Town have reached new peaks. Camden Town is very desirable not only because of its great location but also because of its values - the alternative and hip lifestyle, it represents.

It short, consumers aspire to owning a home for various reasons but we all have in common that we all desire a place that we call home, a place with which we have a strong emotional bond. For myself, and despite the current economic situation, I haven’t given up on owning such a place one day. It will be my haven of peace, joy and togetherness, and I am not prepared to make any compromises on this dream, at least not yet.

Our Influentials expert Jon Berry considers the implications of a new initiative by Pepsi

No more wishing you could buy the world a soda. With Pepsi’s announcement of the first “social vending machine,” it will be possible when you buy a soda to punch in a purchase for friends, family, colleagues, and even people you don’t know.

A touch-screen interface built into the new machine lets consumers tap in friends’ names, mobile numbers, and a personal message with a code redeemable for a free drink at any similarly equipped machine.

They can also record a short video to send the recipient. If the news is more evidence that social networking is the soul of the new machine, it’s also proof of an idea that we at GfK Roper are keenly interested in: The GfK Roper TrendKey trend of “We’re All Influencers Now.”

As technology creates new ever-more channels for consumers to connect, consumer influencing is poised to grow. Already consumers globally are actively engaged in word-of-mouth – probably more so than marketers realize. According to GfK Roper Reports® Worldwide, our global survey, 54% of consumers globally have recommended a product or service to someone beyond their nuclear family in the past year. And it’s not just developed markets: the Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey, and Mexico are among the countries most likely to recommend.

As with all new inventions, there are questions to be answered about the new Pepsi machine. Will it be easy to operate? Or will it be like the office copier/scanner/fax that, if you happen to be out of the office on training day, is completely lost to you? At what point will it connect to Facebook, Twitter, and other social networking sites? This would surely increase brand reach. And can it be pulled off in a way that doesn’t slow down the line.

Still, there’s something fun about taking the solitary experience of standing in front of a vending machine, and turning it into a social occasion. And who doesn’t like to get a gift? Or give one?

Consumers also will be able to commit “Random Acts of Refreshment,” says Pepsi, people buying sodas for strangers, such as “a symbol of encouragement to someone in a city experiencing challenging weather,” or “a congratulatory beverage” to a student at a university that’s just won a sporting event.

As the Word of Mouth Marketing Association (WOMMA) blog notes, this is just the beginning. What else at point of sale could be turned into a social experience? There must be something in the checkout line. Are there other machines in our day-to-day life that could get social-networking spins? The office coffee machine? Microwave? Newspaper boxes at the train station?

A spate of data security scares fuels an on-going trend, says David Crosbie

My American colleague happened to mention to me the other day that she had received at least three emails in recent weeks from companies she’d shared personal data with admitting that the security of those data had been compromised in some way. One of the companies she mentioned had in fact contacted me as well, to inform me of the same problem.

Then came the news that the personal data of 77 million global users of Sony’s PlayStation Network (PSN) had been hacked into, which is only the latest in many news stories about information security, or lack of it, in today’s digital world.

Every year in our Roper Reports Worldwide study, we ask over 30,000 consumers globally which three issues they are most concerned about. In 2010, 8% – getting on for one in ten – of these consumers cited personal information getting into the wrong hands. This year’s results will be released in our Mood of the World 2011 report, coming soon.     

What this annual ‘concerns’ question reveals is that consumers around the world are plagued by a variety of worries, concerns and fears, which they of course try to mitigate through the products and services they buy. In fact, a sizeable proportion of global consumers agree they only buy products and services from a known or trusted brand. These findings help to inform our Safe and Secure trend, which is one of the 12 global consumer trends in our TrendKey framework.

Thanks first to 24 hour rolling news and then to online social networks, information (accurate or otherwise) spreads more quickly than ever before, and it can be envisaged that the spread of fear, coupled with the quest for reassurance, will continue and grow in coming years. In a world of increasing complexity and connectivity it is more challenging, yet at the same time more important, than ever that companies and brands provide credible reassurance and peace of mind at every touch point.

Global 24/7 connections are terrific, but only as long as they’re manageable and live up to expectations, says Diane Crispell.

My daughter texted me from her high school English class on the morning of February 11^th to let me know that Hosni Mubarak was stepping down. Yes, she was kind of breaking school rules, but I thought it was great (a) that her teacher turned on the TV in the classroom so the kids could be witness to the event, and (b) that she was excited enough about it to contact me (even if she didn’t know his name and couldn’t spell Egypt).

Exactly one month later, while waiting for my vehicle to be serviced at my local garage on the morning of March 11^th, I looked at some photos that an employee’s friend had just posted on Facebook – of his Tokyo office in shambles, mere hours after the catastrophic earthquake hit Japan.

These are the moments that explain why 65% of Americans say technology makes them feel connected. They also epitomize one of GfK Roper’s global Key Trends – Instant Everywhere.

Consumers appreciate the benefits of instant-and-everywhere access to people, information, entertainment, and products. They like being able to shop whenever they like, watch TV shows and movies whenever they want, talk to (or text) their friends wherever they are, and take their work wherever they go – OK, maybe they don’t love that last part so much.

This 24/7 culture does have its downside – the media are rife with reports about sleep deprivation brought on by people’s apparent addiction to staying connected around the clock. The message to business in this instance is to help people manage the technology rather than the other way around.

In general, however, the appetite for “instant everywhere” appears limitless. Witness the growth of Netflix and the competition it’s engendered. For example, Amazon recently introduced free and unlimited instant streaming of selected movies and TV shows for its Prime customers, of which I’m one. The only problem is that my online video experience is more like trickling than streaming.

This brings up another potential pitfall of the Instant Everywhere culture – i.e., how “instant” and “everywhere” it really is. Most people have experienced the frustrations and hiccups of dead zones and dropped connections. Businesses should not underestimate the discouragement factor. I know that I’ve abandoned online purchases when I could not easily find what I was looking for or when a transaction did not work quickly or smoothly enough. That’s the danger of raising people’s expectations; you have to deliver on them.

I live in hopes that I will one day be able to watch an entire online video without first pausing it and waiting for it to fully buffer on my system.

The search for peace and solitude gets ever trickier, says David Crosbie

I’ll admit it’s not often that I see links between my hometown and the latest global consumer trends, but I find one aspect of that sleepy corner of rural Scotland to be quite striking. The Galloway Forest Park in Dumfries & Galloway is recognized by the International Dark Sky Association as one of the best places for stargazing in the world. Due to its remoteness and lack of proximity to conurbations, it is one of the few places in the UK not to be affected in some way by light pollution, which renders many stars difficult to see or invisible.

To me, learning of the existence of such a place served to underline the fact that there are fewer and fewer places in the world that are completely untouched by human development, and consequently it becomes progressively more difficult for us to really ‘get away from it all’ – something we know from our Roper Reports Worldwide study is important to many of us. Many global consumers admit that they often feel stressed, and when asked what they do to give themselves a treat, they are most likely to say they simply take time for themselves.

Another much discussed symptom of modern life is information or sensory overload. The spread of portable electronic devices such as smartphones and tablet computers, coupled with the growth of social networking means that we have the ability to stay ‘connected’ like never before, and we are bombarded by ever increasing volumes of information in the form of text, images and data. Not surprisingly, many sources, including our own study, have identified a backlash against the overwhelming tide of information, with 34% of global consumers telling us that they have cut back on the amount of time they spend on social networking sites as it takes too much time and effort, for example.

We feel this is a symptom of a wider trend among consumers, most notably those in developed markets, who wish to feel they are in control of their busy lives and the information they receive, rather than the other way around. This necessitates rationalisation, curation and any number of coping strategies, including giving ourselves some time out and allowing our senses a chance to recover. These strategies could range from turning off the BlackBerry at a set time each night through to heading to the wilds of Scotland where not even the glow from the screen of an iPhone will break the gloom.

This trend, which we call Streamlining, is just one of the 12 global consumer trends in our brand new TrendKey framework, soon to be launched. For further information on this, click here.

The world’s fourth most populous country is definitely one to watch, says David Crosbie

Two media reports in the past week have served to underline the increasing importance of Indonesia and its consumers to the global economy.

Firstly, an article in Bloomberg Businessweek highlighted the fact that many economists are calling for Indonesia to either be added to the BRIC group – Brazil, Russia, India and China: the four nations identified by Goldman Sachs in 2001 as likely to be the world’s biggest economies by 2050 – or to replace Russia altogether.

The rationale behind these calls is that in contrast to Russia, whose GDP figures have been lacklustre of late and whose population is ageing rapidly, Indonesia has a booming economy (with year-on-year GDP growth of nearly 6%, according to Bloomberg) and a young and vibrant population.

Secondly, the UK’s Guardian newspaper reported, under the headline Why Indonesians are all a-Twitter, that according to a study by ComScore, the country has the highest proportion of Twitter users on the planet, with 20.8% of online Indonesians aged over fifteen posting messages on the microblogging site. Brazil comes second, with an equivalent figure of 20.5%. This suggests not only that Indonesian consumers are increasingly tech-savvy, but also that their ability to spread the word about new products and services is on the up.

Indonesia has been one of the ‘Core 25’ countries in GfK Roper Consulting’s Roper Reports Worldwide research since the study’s inception in 1997, because even before the country’s economic advances during the 2000s it represented a formidable group of consumers. Today, Indonesia has the fourth biggest population globally, and is the largest Muslim democracy in the world.

Our ongoing insights into the attitudes and behaviours of Indonesian consumers point to an increasingly promising environment for marketers. Long trend analysis shows that the confidence of Indonesian consumers overtook that of the global average in 2009, and now stands ten percentage points clear. What’s more, according to GfK Roper Consulting’s Consumer Recession Index, which combines a wide range of indicators to determine the extent to which consumers are affected by prevailing economic conditions, Indonesians were the third-least affected of 25 markets in 2010.

It’s clear that Indonesia will offer increased opportunities in the years to come, but these can only be acted upon with a clear insight into the attitudes and behaviours of its consumers. To find out more about how GfK Roper Consulting can help you to achieve this, please contact us. All that’s left now is to settle on a name for this new group. BIIC has been suggested. Or would anybody like a BICI?

Clarks Sunbeat Sandal (tan)

By Diane Crispell

Were you ever talking to someone when all of a sudden you thought – maybe even said out loud – “Gee, I sound like a commercial”? It happens to me reasonably frequently, most recently when I was extolling the virtues of my favorite sandals.