Elmo Roper, creator of The Influentials

The Blink author’s latest pronouncements should be viewed in the context of broader consumer trends, argues David Crosbie

We at GfK Roper Consulting are particularly proud that it was our illustrious predecessors who created the concept of the Influentials – the one in ten citizens who tell the other nine how to vote, where to eat and what to buy.

The concept of Influentials was first coined by Elmo Roper in the 1940s, in a segmentation created for Standard Oil. Starting in the US in 1973, and then later globally, we have identified and profiled those well-informed and trusted individuals who are sought out for and disperse advice on a whole host of topics, and who are so valuable to marketers. As traditional forms of advertising are trusted less and less, and as technology develops, we have also monitored the steady growth of ‘word of mouse’, as it supplements traditional word of mouth.

It’s in this context that I was particularly interested to read Malcolm Gladwell’s controversial article on social networks in the New Yorker magazine last month, and to monitor the fierce debate it ignited on the Twittersphere and elsewhere. Of course Gladwell is something of an Influential himself, with books such as The Tipping Point and Blink selling millions of copies and influencing countless marketing strategies.  In his article, Gladwell warns that the motivational power of social networks is being over-estimated, explaining that a Facebook friend (or other virtual relationship) should not be equated to a real friendship, as some have tried to, because the ties are much weaker in nature. His argument related particularly to social activism, but it certainly caused me to reconsider the relative worth of ‘real’ and ‘virtual’ ties.

Our GfK Roper Reports Worldwide data show how virtual relationships are the fastest growing form of interaction globally, with 20% of consumers in our 2010 study saying they had been in touch with someone they only knew online in the past month. We also know that online sources are increasingly trusted as a source of information on which products or services to buy. As the growth in popularity of product review sites has shown, strong personal ties are not quite as necessary when it comes to deciding what to buy or where to eat, though the views of a friend will still count for more than those of a stranger.

As we see it, not only do the myriad social networking sites make it easier for traditional Influentials to carry out their business of spreading the word about products and services they like or dislike and responding to requests from acquaintances for advice, but they also encourage others who may have never previously considered doing so to review a hotel on TripAdvisor, say, or to consider the opinions of fellow consumers via a product review site.

As Gladwell argues, Twitter and Facebook may not be as suited to organising revolutions as more conventional forms of social activism, but in the world of retail they undoubtedly strengthen the hand of the global consumer, and as such their power should not be dismissed lightly by marketers in any sector.

By Jon Berry

What do you get for a car that’s gone the extra mile for you? How about a trip to the car wash and replacing its missing hub cap?

Last week our 1998 Toyota Camry turned 175,000 miles. Fittingly the milestone came on a trip to the grocery store. While this mild-mannered sedan no doubt has daydreamed of lighting out for the frontier for a Blue Highways adventure, its reality has been more George Bailey than William Least Heat Moon.

There have been a lot of trips to the store in this car. And commutes to work. Drives to school. And to the movies. The odometer may evoke adventure – 175,000 miles is equal to 60 drives across the country. But the furthest West this car has been is trips to my parents’ farm in Indiana.

This has been a family car. It’s been through two kids growing up and going off into the world; two dogs (note the chew marks on the rear-seat seatbelts); family vacations to the beach (sand in the trunk); Christmas trees (pine needles); and trips to college (amazing how much can be crammed into defined spaces).

We still have a ways to go to catch up with the Depression generation. I am reminded of this every time I travel out to Indiana to visit my Dad, go into my Dad’s barn, and see his two tractors – a shiny red 1940s International Harvester and his “newer” model, a shiny blue early-1960s Ford. Add one more reason to hang onto the 175,000-mile Camry – to see how its story turns out.

Reaction to awareness campaign underlines the controversial nature of this topic, says David Crosbie

Once upon a time – last October in fact – the UK government’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) created a TV and poster campaign that highlighted the dangers of climate change in language that all consumers could understand. The series featured well known nursery rhymes, whose original lyrics were altered to take account of the effects that climate change has had on the environment. So for example, when “Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a pail of water”, they found that, “[t]here was none, as extreme weather due to climate change had caused a drought.”

The campaign, however, was the subject of nearly 1,000 complaints to the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) from members of the public who varyingly claimed that it was misleading, scaremongering and frightening to children. In mid March, the ASA ruled that two of the print ads, ‘Jack and Jill’ and ‘Three Men in a Tub’, had breached its guidelines, noting that they “should have been phrased more tentatively.” In the wake of the judgement, some commentators have weighed in with further criticism of the campaign, going so far as to say that it set back public debate on the subject several years.

This incident serves to underline the contentious nature of the issue of climate change. The number of complaints received suggests that there is a body of UK consumers who, if not opposed to the idea of man-made climate change, are sceptical about it and alert to exaggerated or misleading claims made on the subject. The aim of the campaign seems to have been to cajole or even frighten consumers into action by reducing their carbon emissions, but what are the current levels of engagement (and cynicism) amongst Brits?    

Roper Reports Worldwide data from 2009 show that 59% of UK consumers agree that “we/I have to do something now to save the planet”, which falls somewhat short of the global average. On the other hand, 27% agree that, “global climate change/global warming is not as much of a threat as the media make it out to be”, again a lower proportion than globally. Rather than leading to increased agreement with the former statement, this latest campaign may have inadvertently led to increased agreement with the latter. The fallout has led some to ask what is the best approach to environmental communication.

While the answer to this query is by no means straightforward, what is not in doubt is the complexity of the debate on this topic. That is why GfK Roper Consulting is taking its consumer research on environmental attitudes one stage further in 2010 with Green Gauge Global, a new product that includes a worldwide green segmentation of consumers. You can now sign up to receive the latest news on this product as it is released, so that you can sleep safe in the knowledge that you won’t miss out… 

Leapfrogging the recession by going abroad

By Jon Berry

One friend’s child, a 2008 college graduate from California, is in his second year teaching English in Madrid, Spain’s, public-school system. Another friend’s child, a new grad from upstate New York, is coaching lacrosse at a private school in northern England. Two others chucked their entry-level jobs to travel, respectively, to Kenya and China. Another latched onto a puppetry workshop in Italy. Another went to Greece to build up her photography portfolio.

I’m not sure at what point one can declare a trend. But going abroad is becoming to this recession what graduate school was to past downturns – a strategy for leapfrogging the economic cycle with an experience that will make you more valuable for the long term. It’s not just young people. A parent at the school where my wife works is transferring to the Singapore office of an investment bank. But the young are a driving force. A major motivation for the parent was to give his kids the experience of living in Asia; it will good for their economic futures, he says.

Welcome to the next era of globalization. Global growth, as measured in economic data, may have slowed. But the idea of globalization is streaming forward. And it’s become more personal and generational. It’s as if a 21st-Century Horace Greeley has said, “Go West, young people. And East. And North. And South.”

Forget “Gen Y.” The true handle on this generation is globalization. Call them the New Globalists. Or New Frontierists. Or the Marco Polos. Or the Gaias (for their combination of globalism and environmentalism).

Three Cups of Tea

Reared on books, movies, and international campaigns expressing a passion for the world and the possibility that progress can come from connection – Three Cups of Tea, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, Doctors without Borders, Partners in Health – at a time when falling trade barriers and a growing Internet are bringing the world closer together, New Globalists live in a fundamentally different world than their parents. They likely will teach their elders the tools of globalization the way previous generations taught their parents how to use the remote control.

I think the threat that people my age see in globalization – that way we robotically append “competition” to the word “global” – says more about our fears than reality. We react the way our parents reacted to the social and technological changes of their time.

Did you see Google’s Super Bowl ad that tells the charming story of a cross-Atlantic romance through a series of Google searches? (I’ve linked to it below.) It’s a great ad, and it’s great because it’s true. Many people have a version of the Google-changed-my-life story. Mine is about my daughter. As she was approaching graduation from college, her advisors told her she should find a writers colony. They suggested several in the U.S. But my daughter, thinking an expat-in-France experience would be more to her liking than Provincetown in winter, Google-searched writers colonies in France. She emailed applications, and voila, a few months later was at an artists colony in France, the only American among sculptors, painters, videographers, and writers from Africa, Europe, Latin America, and Asia (and at a very low price).

When we hear stories of a college student going to Scandinavia, striking up a relationship with a young business-school student whose concentration is business in China (a program started because so many Scandinavian companies have operations in China), then continuing that long-distance relationship (another true story), we tend to marvel, like with the Google ad. “Wow, isn’t that amazing.”
Be ready for more such stories. The New Globalists travel great distances, strike up relationships, and come back with new ideas and amazing stories with the ease that my Indiana farmer grandparents took Sunday drives to Cincinnati. I believe it cuts across class lines more than people suspect: a job on the factory floor in Indiana can lead to a promotion to a job in China (another person I know).

We’ve begun to see the shift in our research; for example, a recent GfK Roper Reports U.S. survey found that the #1 thing Gen Y (aka the New Globalists) would like to do at this stage of their life is “visit other parts of the world”; 84% agree. But this story is just beginning. Businesses should think about fashions, foods, objects, books, programs, and ideas you can introduce from other parts of the world – and about how you can facilitate this new generation’s adventuring.

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The contrast between rapidly developing Gurgaon and the hubbub of Old Delhi

A reminder of just how real globalisation is, from a recent trip to rapidly developing Delhi.

By Anna Clark

On a recent trip to Delhi to run a trends workshop, we took the opportunity absorb the city, do a spot of people watching, and as trend spotters on tour, check out the local advertising