By Jon Berry

It’s never been harder to make money in the stock market. Millions of Americans need career help. The world is being tested environmentally, emotionally, and spiritually. It’s time to talk about food

At least, that appears to be the conclusion of consumers as reflected on the self-help bestsellers’ lists. Six of the top 10 best-selling books on The New York Times’ “Advice, How-To, and Miscellaneous” paperback list are about food. As are three of the top 10 hardcover books in the category.
No other interest comes close. Not money. Not careers. Not relationships.
 
That’s good news for food marketers.
 
This is a time for getting people’s attention. And, given the context, no wonder. Food is a source of comfort. It satisfies. And, at least theoretically, it’s something you have a measure of control over. You can’t say those things of the current economy.
 
However, marketers looking for a single, simple theme in food books will be disappointed.

The organic, holistic approach that has been showing up more in food aisles of the supermarket is represented on the list – Michael Pollen’s Food Rules.

But there are also books on calorie-busting indulgences – What’s New, Cupcake? and Steven Raichlen’s Planet Barbecue.

As well as tough-love books on losing weight – the bluntly-titled The Belly Fat Cure (ouch), This Is Why You’re Fat (double-ouch), and Extra Lean (ok, we get it). And the split-the-difference Cook This, Not That, which offers lower-calorie takes on high-cal restaurant favorites.

There’s also the obligatory celebrity cookbook. This week it’s Skinny Italian by one of reality-TV’s “Real Housewives of New Jersey.” Last week it was Home Cooking with Trisha Yearwood, the country singer.

Meanwhile, the current bestselling hardcover advice book, Women, Food and God, is about women’s relationship with food.

Given these conflicting directions (Comfort food! No, diet! No, locavore!), one might conclude that the marketplace could benefit from an hour or two on the couch with a good therapist to work out its relationship with food.

But within the bestsellers list’s mixed menu is a larger idea that we see in our market research on attitudes toward food – and see in particular in our research with Food Influentialssm, the 1 in 7 Americans who are most actively engaged in spreading word of mouth about food.

Call it the “It Takes Two” principle (with respect to the old Marvin Gaye/Tammi Terrell Motown tune). Consumers are responsive to more than one idea about food. Three in four Food Influentials, for example, describe themselves as very interested in foods from different countries. But two in three say they’re always looking for new snacks, like to be among the first to try new food and beverages, and “make a real effort to eat healthy” as well.

And Food Influentials are much more likely to describe themselves in these terms than the average person (by 14 to 30 points) — suggesting these cross-currents won’t be going away anytime soon.

If healthy eating is to grow, then, it should be “healthy-plus” — a healthy nutritional take combined with another food interest.

For some time, we’ve talked with clients about the importance of healthy foods tasting good and being convenient to on-the-go lifestyles. But our research suggests now that’s just the starting point. Healthy foods need to be interesting – offering people new tastes from other cultures, in new forms, with new formulas.

“It takes two” may not explain everything — for instance, the Trisha Yearwood recipe “Garth’s Breakfast Bowl,” named for her husband, country singer Garth Brooks, and combining eggs, frozen tater tots, sausage, bacon, packaged cheese, and garlic tortellini (“not for the faint of heart or high of cholesterol,” Publishers Weekly tactfully notes).

But I think “two” does offer a growth path for healthy foods. What’s next? How about healthy eating ideas from China, Thailand, Africa, or Latin America? Acai, from Latin America, this year’s hot antioxidant (“promegranate is sooo 2008″), may point the way. Or maybe healthier, international evolutions of snacks from energy bars to TV-viewing treats?

It just takes two.

(For more on Influentials, including details on the new Global Influentials research in the new 2010 Roper Reports Worldwide survey, which delves into influencers in a variety of catgories, click here).

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By Jon Berry

What do you get for a car that’s gone the extra mile for you? How about a trip to the car wash and replacing its missing hub cap?

Last week our 1998 Toyota Camry turned 175,000 miles. Fittingly the milestone came on a trip to the grocery store. While this mild-mannered sedan no doubt has daydreamed of lighting out for the frontier for a Blue Highways adventure, its reality has been more George Bailey than William Least Heat Moon.

 (If Pixar ever creates a car version of It’s a Wonderful Life, George Bailey, the hero who never left home, will probably be a Camry.)

There have been a lot of trips to the store in this car. And commutes to work. Drives to school. And to the movies. The odometer may evoke adventure – 175,000 miles is equal to 60 drives across the country. But the furthest West this car has been is trips to my parents’ farm in Indiana.

This has been a family car. It’s been through two kids growing up and going off into the world; two dogs (note the chew marks on the rear-seat seatbelts); family vacations to the beach (sand in the trunk); Christmas trees (pine needles); and trips to college (amazing how much can be crammed into defined spaces).

And it’s done so with minimal repairs – a record that, with all the costs of raising kids, I will be forever grateful for. Which is one reason that, even as the Camry’s sidled into being our second car, driven only a few times a week, I’d have a hard time giving it up.  
 
I bring all this up because I think I’m not alone. It’s not just cars – though my informal research, asking for a show of hands at speaking engagements for those whose cars have gone past the 100k mark suggests quite a few folks are in that category. All things “vintage” are being prized more these days, from clothes, to music, home décor, and recipes.
 
Staying power is having a star moment. Six in 10 Americans tell GfK Roper Reports® they strongly agree that they buy things that are “built to last.” That’s more than the proportion who tell us they’re “comparing prices and looking for the best price” on everything they buy. And agreement has risen since the start of the recession. Timelessness has become a theme among consumers across the world as well – and marketers have been responding.
 
I don’t think it’s simply nostalgia. There’s renewed appreciation of day-in, day-out, value-for-the-dollar quality – a value those who grew up in the Depression carried with them, and that, until recently, seemed lost on younger generations. As recession-singed consumers reenter the market, businesses should remind them that buying products built for the long haul will save them money they can spend on other things – even if it costs them a bit more now.
 
Camrys may not be cool in the way that the round-shouldered Chevys and sharp-finned Caddies of the 1950s and 60s were. But there is something innovative in them that I’d forgotten about until that magical rolling-over of the odometer knocked loose the memory of my then teen-aged son’s rationale for buying the car: “It’s the low-end Lexus.”
 
That quality of delivering luxury-car quiet, ride, and reliability at a middle-class price was part of a larger wave of innovation in marketing in its day that brought gourmet-quality food (Trader Joe’s, Starbucks), furniture (Ikea), investments (Fidelity, Vanguard), even running shoes (Nike’s “Bowerman” line) to broader audiences. In their way, they were as innovative as the first Fords, the first Chevys, or the first Apples. They’re worth studying for the lessons they offer us now. 

We still have a ways to go to catch up with the Depression generation. I am reminded of this every time I travel out to Indiana to visit my Dad, go into my Dad’s barn, and see his two tractors – a shiny red 1940s International Harvester and his “newer” model, a shiny blue early-1960s Ford. Add one more reason to hang onto the 175,000-mile Camry – to see how its story turns out.

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Leapfrogging the recession by going abroad

By Jon Berry

One friend’s child, a 2008 college graduate from California, is in his second year teaching English in Madrid, Spain’s, public-school system. Another friend’s child, a new grad from upstate New York, is coaching lacrosse at a private school in northern England. Two others chucked their entry-level jobs to travel, respectively, to Kenya and China. Another latched onto a puppetry workshop in Italy. Another went to Greece to build up her photography portfolio.

I’m not sure at what point one can declare a trend. But going abroad is becoming to this recession what graduate Google Screenshotschool was to past downturns – a strategy for leapfrogging the economic cycle with an experience that will make you more valuable for the long term. It’s not just young people. A parent at the school where my wife works is transferring to the Singapore office of an investment bank. But the young are a driving force. A major motivation for the parent was to give his kids the experience of living in Asia; it will good for their economic futures, he says.

Welcome to the next era of globalization. Global growth, as measured in economic data, may have slowed. But the idea of globalization is streaming forward. And it’s become more personal and generational. It’s as if a 21st-Century Horace Greeley has said, “Go West, young people. And East. And North. And South.”

Forget “Gen Y.” The true handle on this generation is globalization. Call them the New Globalists. Or New Frontierists. Or the Marco Polos. Or the Gaias (for their combination of globalism and environmentalism).

Three Cups of Tea

Reared on books, movies, and international campaigns expressing a passion for the world and the possibility that progress can come from connection – Three Cups of Tea, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, Doctors without Borders, Partners in Health – at a time when falling trade barriers and a growing Internet are bringing the world closer together, New Globalists live in a fundamentally different world than their parents. They likely will teach their elders the tools of globalization the way previous generations taught their parents how to use the remote control.

I think the threat that people my age see in globalization – that way we robotically append “competition” to the word “global” – says more about our fears than reality. We react the way our parents reacted to the social and technological changes of their time.

Did you see Google’s Super Bowl ad that tells the charming story of a cross-Atlantic romance through a series of Google searches? (I’ve linked to it below.) It’s a great ad, and it’s great because it’s true. Many people have a version of the Google-changed-my-life story. Mine is about my daughter. As she was approaching graduation from college, her advisors told her she should find a writers colony. They suggested several in the U.S. But my daughter, thinking an expat-in-France experience would be more to her liking than Provincetown in winter, Google-searched writers colonies in France. She emailed applications, and voila, a few months later was at an artists colony in France, the only American among sculptors, painters, videographers, and writers from Africa, Europe, Latin America, and Asia (and at a very low price).

When we hear stories of a college student going to Scandinavia, striking up a relationship with a young business-school student whose concentration is business in China (a program started because so many Scandinavian companies have operations in China), then continuing that long-distance relationship (another true story), we tend to marvel, like with the Google ad. “Wow, isn’t that amazing.”
Be ready for more such stories. The New Globalists travel great distances, strike up relationships, and come back with new ideas and amazing stories with the ease that my Indiana farmer grandparents took Sunday drives to Cincinnati. I believe it cuts across class lines more than people suspect: a job on the factory floor in Indiana can lead to a promotion to a job in China (another person I know).

We’ve begun to see the shift in our research; for example, a recent GfK Roper Reports U.S. survey found that the #1 thing Gen Y (aka the New Globalists) would like to do at this stage of their life is “visit other parts of the world”; 84% agree. But this story is just beginning. Businesses should think about fashions, foods, objects, books, programs, and ideas you can introduce from other parts of the world – and about how you can facilitate this new generation’s adventuring.

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By Jon Berry

Passing through Grand Central Station on the way to work over the holidays, I stopped by the Transit Museum to check out its holiday-tradition model-train display. It was great, as always, a Manhattan fantasia of trains coursing under and around the Chrysler Building and other landmarks. But what really caught my eye was the unassuming little tray of buttons I saw when I turned around to leave, each bearing the simple message “optimism.” I immediately, without thinking, bought $20 worth (18 buttons, with tax) and popped one into my coat lapel. I’ve been passing them out ever since.

I’m not normally a rose-colored glasses type; “contrarian” would probably be a more apt accoutrement. But optimism is an idea I can buy into this year.

Yes, the jobs outlook is lousy as far as the eye can see.

Yes, Americans’ household net worth is still off 20%, since the housing/stock crash, an “epic” $12 trillion loss, as economist David Rosenberg recently wrote in Business Week.

Yes, as we found out over Christmas, we’re still living in a 9/11 world.

But trendwatchers who just preach pragmatism and prudence for 2010 are missing some big stories. A more complex – and optimistic – picture is emerging in our U.S. research.

Consumers’ mood is brightening. We see this most clearly in our long-running “good time to buy” gauge of consumer confidence. 26% of Americans 18 and older now feel it’s a good time to buy, according to our fall 2009 online survey, up 8 points from fall 2008.

For sure, we shouldn’t get carried away. A mid-20s “good time to buy” is nothing to write home about. Still, a shift has begun. Marketers will be pleased to find some folks they like to hang out with among those with the largest swings towards confidence – the leading-indicator INFLUENTIAL Americans®, the affluent, and – perhaps most important – moms with kids under 18 and working moms with kids under 18. If, as the old line says, “When mama’s not happy, nobody’s happy,” it bodes well for us all that moms are in the vanguard of feeling better.

Then there’s the marketplace. True to the prediction we made in our “Lessons from Past Recessions” client teleconference last February, creativity and innovation have not taken a holiday – providing more reasons to be optimistic.

Here’s my starter list of reasons for optimism today:

  1. Apple’s “i”-posse (iPhone, iPod, the apps, and, soon, it seems, a tablet)
  2. Streaming video on Netflix and Hulu
  3. The real-food movement – farmers markets, Michael Pollen, organics, and regional food entrepreneurs like Dos Toros burritos (check them out the next time you’re in NYC) and Kakawa chocolate (http://www.kakawachocolates.com)
  4. The Economist’s 12/19/09 issue – especially “the idea of progress” and “the art of abandonment” essays.
  5. The greening of the auto and home industries (here’s to “cash for caulkers” in 2010)
  6. Online learning (watch for it to be a seedbed for reinvention and entrepreneurism as the recovery moves forward)
  7. Movies like Up, Up in the Air, and Avatar (storytelling lives!)
  8. The 2010 World Cup
  9. Charles Dickens novels (not new, but was he ever more timely?)
  10. The “optimism” buttons (beyond the serendipity, they have a great story, see below).

What’s your list?

(The “optimism” buttons are part of graphic designer Reed Seifer’s Project Optimism. They wound up in the Train Museum as a result of a public-art project this fall that stamped “optimism” on the back of millions of New York subway passes. So go buy “optimism” buttons for yourself, clients, colleagues, and friends, see http://www.projectoptimism.com/about.htm. Let’s start something.)

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